Swinging Europe
- June 2000
This Opinion was featured in the June 2002 issue of the the Anglia Farmer and Contractor
The swing of European politics to the right may provide a breathing space for farm budget and World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments to be addressed before eastern European accession and the environment again dominate the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) debate.
The unexpected result of the first round of the French presidential election is likely to influence European politics for some time to come. True, Jean-Marie Le Pen finished a poor second in the final run-off, but that was only because of an uneasy alliance of the left and centre right; and the all but universal condemnation of his policies, within and outside France, does not alter the fact that nearly one Frenchman in five voted for them. The tendency for these issues to be swept under the rug by the public at large in the interest of political correctness can only go on for so long before somebody trips.
This seems to have been taken on board by President Chirac. He has appointed Jean-Pierre Raffarin, a grassroots moderate from provincial France, as an interim Prime Minister with a mandate to crack down on crime, reduce tax, fight unemployment and listen more to voters.
Vivid evidence that challenges exist elsewhere in Europe was the recent and tragic assassination of Pim Fortuyn, the increasingly successful right wing Dutch politician and who was like Le Pen willing to question political correctness. The implications of this for the current election campaign in the normally politically tranquil Netherlands is difficult to predict. But it can not help the re-election of the left of centre government whose resignation over an unrelated issued resulted in the election.
A further significant development was the unexpected defeat of the Social Democrats in the German province of Saxony-Anhalt, one of the most economically depressed areas of that country. This is the last electoral measure of the support of Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats before they face an election in September. And this follows recent election results in Italy, Denmark and Portugal which have favoured right of centre parties. Elections in Ireland and Sweden are also scheduled for this year.
In reality the influence of the far right, even if recent events indicate resurgence of its political fortune, is likely to be at best regional and perhaps passing as has been the case with the Greens of the left through their current junior partnership in Germany's government. But there may be an increased readiness for mainstream political parties to debate what is now deemed not to be political correct issues in order to avoid the current French and Dutch experiences.
But existing programmes and institutions of the European Union, mainly those of the European Commission, seem retrospectively quite resilient to swings in the politics of member states. Such is the immunity of these institutions to political influences, their establishment is often referred to them being "set in concrete."
This is, however, far from the case for programmes under consideration. The European Council is composed directly of representatives of member states and little goes forward with out the collective nod of the council.
Almost any item on the current agenda of the council could, therefore, be threatened. The most likely casualty seems to be the time table for the accession of Eastern European countries to the European Union. This is likely to be increasingly challenged by the right.
It would, of course, have particular significance for agriculture as the need to accommodate eastern Europe, sooner rather than later, has been a driving force for revision of the CAP. The influence of the left for environmental support and the progressive transfer of funds from the farm budget will almost certainly now be blunted.
This will, for the moment, simplify CAP related debate to the long running issue of budget costs and the more recent one of meeting WTO commitments. It is to be hoped that these issues will be resolved by the time the political centre of gravity swings back to the left and the emphasis on the accession of eastern Europe and environmental dictates return.
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